Next Year However!

Let’s hope, but as always predictions are hard… …especially when the future is concerned. From the statistics in Sweden there has been an exponential growth since mid Mars both in the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ , chose the logarithmic view of the y-axises where possible, the cumulative diagrams are smother). The cumulated number of deaths has increased by a factor of ten every ninth day (while the *confirmed* cases has been slower in growth (much limited by the number of performed tests though)). This can clearly *not* go on for very many weeks, the rate must change by necessity. Sounds “fine” (that the peak is likely to be more or less over soon i.e.)?

The first wave of the Spanish flu was relatively mild, while the following ones were not. I have of course no idea if it is likely that Covid-19 would behave in the same way though. Another thing is the vaccine. To my understanding after following the news rather closely is that the typical time to get a vaccine is ten years, but due to the urgency in this case we could hope for 18 months. So my *guess* (really a guess and nothing but a guess) is that after the most urgent doses has been given to healthcare workers and old people, the Christmas gift of 2021 will be a dose of vaccine.

Or immunity lasts for a long time and the herd immunity is so efficient so Covid-19 will be a winter/spring/early summer-2020 phenomenon only. But we don’t know yet. But then, not trying to prepare for the 2021 meeting would be like not arrange/prepare for any picnics because it could rain I guess.

2 Responses

Exult says:

April 3, 2020 at 10:14

Let’s hope, but as always predictions are hard… …especially when the future is concerned. From the statistics in Sweden there has been an exponential growth since mid Mars both in the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths ( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/ , chose the logarithmic view of the y-axises where possible, the cumulative diagrams are smother). The cumulated number of deaths has increased by a factor of ten every ninth day (while the *confirmed* cases has been slower in growth (much limited by the number of performed tests though)). This can clearly *not* go on for very many weeks, the rate must change by necessity. Sounds “fine” (that the peak is likely to be more or less over soon i.e.)?

The first wave of the Spanish flu was relatively mild, while the following ones were not. I have of course no idea if it is likely that Covid-19 would behave in the same way though. Another thing is the vaccine. To my understanding after following the news rather closely is that the typical time to get a vaccine is ten years, but due to the urgency in this case we could hope for 18 months. So my *guess* (really a guess and nothing but a guess) is that after the most urgent doses has been given to healthcare workers and old people, the Christmas gift of 2021 will be a dose of vaccine.

Or immunity lasts for a long time and the herd immunity is so efficient so Covid-19 will be a winter/spring/early summer-2020 phenomenon only. But we don’t know yet. But then, not trying to prepare for the 2021 meeting would be like not arrange/prepare for any picnics because it could rain I guess.

1. Sven Arnesen says:
  
  April 3, 2020 at 10:23
  
  Just like you say, predictions – especially when they involve the future – are difficult!
  
  However, I rather plan for that picnic and hope for the rain to stay away! 🙂